I don’t want to hear about goals out 50 years for climate change and our other environmental issues, decreasing fresh water and farmable land availability, less than a 30 year stock in oil, depletion of fish worldwide, destruction of forests worldwide, global warming approaching tipping point now, etc. Fine to have those goals, but they have to be translated to very near term targets with accountability and transparency. I want to know what commitments are for 2011, 2012, 2013, and up to maybe 2019. There is no accountability with a 50 year planning timeframe. Year over year specific actions, tracking results and focusing on your own country’s contribution, action, and measurable results is what is required. If I hear one more time, I am not going to commit or take action because another country is not committing or taking action yet, it will continue to confirm that we are led by a bunch of kids.
I also take issue with these huge agreements or bills. A 1,000 page bill, like our US Congress seems to think is acceptable, is incomprehensible to the representatives voting on it (and even not read by our representatives) and definitely not understood by all of us in the system. Even the Kyoto protocol was too complex as so much legislation here is and as so much done in the International arena. To change the behavior of complex systems, there are several leverage points:
- Everyone in the system needs to understand the common principles, the policies and actions meant to move the system to results we desire
- Be clear about the goal/desired results of the system or the problem we are trying to solve
- Be clear about the common, shared principles of the policies and action you are going to assess
- Identify the system archetypes displayed by the system
- Review incentives and rules driving the behavior of the system, i.e., change them, remove ones that cause the wrong behavior or cause unintended consequences, and add ones that will influence business, government, and public behaviors
- Be sure you are focused on the whole, the processes, and the inter-relationships
- Develop metrics that can be tracked and reported annually
- Provide accountability and transparency on an annual basis
- Ensure regular and clear communication
Very little of the above is possible without an approach and commitment to ‘simplicity without reduction’, which per The Natural Step Sustainability Framework, means make it simpler to deal with complexity, provide direction for strategy and decision-making for the details, yet don’t simplify in the sense of disregarding any of the complexity (credit to The Natural Step).
Our politicians and government officials all over the world are missing a huge opportunity to unite the world around the urgency for sustainability action worldwide with as many that can work it now. They let themselves get trapped in a debate over climate change when that it is only one of our big issues. The great majority of them don’t seem to have a basic foundation in system thinking that is required to change the world’s complex systems to deliver more of the results we want, e.g., a world rapidly progressing to sustainable living, business, and government. We are close to out of time for avoiding the major catastrophes of climate change, running out of oil, being severely constrained on fresh water and other resources.
This view is not apocalyptic and we can’t scare people into action. However, we do have to be more strident in what we communicate. I think very highly of the Pew Center on Climate Change. However, I think both the Pew Center, the IPCC, etc. have to find a way to get through to all of us. Somehow the future has to be brought forward to us without the smell of politics and with the thrill of united action. From their report “Key Scientific Developments Since the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report”, the news on the pace of global warming is grim. The last two sentences of their update report summary is much too ‘Pollyanna’ for me. “Recent revisions of projected changes are higher than earlier estimates and the IPCC projections published in 2007 now appear rather conservative in light of more recent observations and improved modeling techniques. Fortunately, strong policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions can still avert the worst consequences of climate change.” The 2007 IPCC report was more than disturbing in its projected changes and the science that supports it. ‘Now appear rather conservative’ is quite understated. The last sentence with the ‘fortunately’ is inadequate. We are already experiencing climate change impacts. No matter what we do now, there will be more and they will be more severe. Since we don’t know the tipping point, it seems fair to me to indicate we have lost some of the opportunity to stave off many impacts of climate change and that not only do we need take significant action to reduce greenhouse gases (that stay in the atmosphere for at least 100 years) and we need to take significant action to prepare for the disruptions. Significant change on a worldwide basis takes a long, long time. Heck, change in a big company takes a long time. Why is it that great companies can articulate their sustainability principles and some of their strategies and results? They have to engage their employees. They can’t just order ‘you will do sustainability’. Probably the first step for government is agreeing to common shared principles that are science based for sustainability, not just climate change.
We need to know and commit to what we actions and expected results we need to deliver in 2011, 2012, 2013, i.e., year over year within an accountable and measurable timeframe. We already know, very few if any countries are meeting their commitments from the Kyoto Protocol. An international agreement that doesn’t deliver is useless. The success or failure of a society is dependent on several factors, but the most important is that society’s response to its environmental and social problems. With globalization, we are one society and very inter-dependent. Our world is also very diverse from culture to values, perceptions of world reality, etc. Yet, the mark of the greatness of today’s leaders will be in the aggressive action they can collectively drive with as much of the world as possible. There are so many immediate actions that these leaders have all kinds of ways of beginning to drive change. In US, the government has yet to call on its people to change through changes in rules, incentives, and policies. Business and the public has to driven to change and change faster. It doesn’t mean necessarily denying ourselves, but rather changing how we deliver our quality of life.
What do you think?
Too dire a view? Why?
What do you think of the effectiveness of large bills and international agreements?
What do you think of radically reducing the time horizon to ensure the progress we need?
Debbie Deland, PMP, Six Sigma Black Belt
Sustainability Expert, Systems Thinking Practitioner
President, Greater Orlando Net Impact Professional Chapter
Green Leader Panel Member
Tags: Climate Change, Environment, G8, UN
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