Humans are linear thinkers and event focused. Our focus on events is natural and fed by the media that provides event after event, usually giving no context of time or quantity. The complex systems of our energy structure do not behave linearly. Broad understanding of systems thinking is pivotal to accelerating the deployment of renewable energies, energy efficiencies, and lifestyle change. The public is perfectly capable of understanding the concepts of systems thinking. However, I am not sure any of us understand the lifestyle sacrifices we have to make to fulfill our moral obligations to the planet and humanity.
I don’t pretend to be a systems thinking scholar; just a learning practitioner. I hope to share my enthusiasm for embracing systems thinking to drive action. I also hope to hear from you on where I am off, where I have to expand my thinking, what action(s) would drive acceleration of renewable technologies deployment, radical energy efficiency progress, lifestyle change and green jobs across US businesses.
This blog series
This series of blogs focus on basic systems thinking as it is applies to our energy structure. It will also integrate some of the learning that lean practices provide, as well as the scientific principles of The Natural Step. The learning will only touch the surface with the hope that you will take the learning and/or ideas further and, as importantly, applying the learning in the job you are in now. The intent is to focus on leverage points of complex systems, so we can move our complex energy system more toward results we desire. Unfortunately, the behavior of complex systems involves collapses and oscillations, not linear behavior lines. A challenge for us is that to change complex system behavior is often counter-intuitive. Also, complex systems will surprise us because we can’t understand and anticipate all interactions within a series of complex subsystems comprising an overall system.
Best ways to leverage complex systems
We can understand the best ways to leverage complex systems by targeting specific actions to drive different systems structure and behavior. Systems thinking also highlights that total overhauls or restructurings may not be the most effective way to influence the behavior of a complex system. Although jumping ahead, to feed your curiosity, the most effective ways to influence the behavior of a complex system are:
- Change the System Paradigm(s)—Change the mental models from which the system operates, e.g., its goals, structure, rules, delays, parameters
- Change The Goal(s) of the System—Change the purpose, function, vision of the system
- Allow the System to Self-Organize—Systems have the power to add, change, or evolve the system structure
- Change Rules—Understand and change incentives, punishments, constraints both visible and not visible within the system
- Change Information Flows—Understand and change who does and does not have access to information, including where is information missing
(Concepts Credit to Donella Meadows, Thinking in Systems and Peter Senge, The Fifth Discipline)
Systems thinking isn’t new, but it is a discipline that takes time for groups to do effectively. A complex system is a collection of things that interact producing specific results or behavior over time. This behavior over time is characteristic to the system. An amoeba is a complex system, humans are complex systems, economies, our global ecosystem are complex systems, as is our energy structure. A system is characterized by reinforcing and balancing feedback loops, delays, its own stocks, flows, rules, etc.
In the next blogs, we will discuss basic system characteristics, archetypes, etc . As a teaser, what do you think is the goal of our energy super-structure? The underlying systems goal seems to be solely to provide the cheapest energy to the user while keeping up with the growth in demand. It is also a system that is not constrained by its true costs, i.e., cost of the pollution it generates per unit of energy. With that goal and the lack of true costing, we have run amok, e.g., we get more coal plants, acceptance that nuclear energy may be OK, no reduction in oil use, no radical reduction in energy use, insufficient movement to renewable energies and energy efficiency needed to reduce some of the coming climate change. Our energy system exhibits the ‘shifting the burden’ systems trap, the trap of addiction, as well as the trap, ‘tragedy of the commons’ and the trap of ‘success to the successful’. Think about what rules, incentives, etc. encourage this addictive cycle or could reduce the addictive cycle, could drive management of the commons, and/or will support developing country interests. The ‘shifting the burden’ trap repeatedly fixes symptoms versus root causes. What do you think are the root causes of our energy systems behavior? Behavior that currently results in:
- Not delivering clean, renewable energy broadly?
- Mindlessly supporting our continuing energy demand growth?
- Allowing us to squander $700 billion/year of our country’s wealth on foreign oil?
- Using gargantuan amounts of oil when we know the sources of oil are limited, no more than 30 years of oil left based on the rates of consumption in 2004?
- The US not supporting the Kyoto Protocol, which required far less from developed countries than needed to avert disaster?
- Ignoring the damage we are doing to the planet and the harm we are doing to others?
By Debbie Deland, Director of The 10% Initiative. She works with Green Cities Florida, the Chamber of Commerce, and NetImpact.
Tags: Energy, Sustainability, Systems Thinking
Dear Debbie,
I really think your on the right track!
I am a Business Software System Consultant who has worked in the Supply Chain Management - ERP- industrial sector for the last 30 years.
I see the biggest problem of renewable energy deployment today as very similar as to what occurred in the Business Software Industry 30 years ago. The Business applications were not systematic. They were all desparate system applications that were not intergrated into a holistic system enterprise. The problem with desparate systems is that they do not work together to accomplish an end goal; instead they forcus on many symptoms rather than root problems effecting strategic goals.
In the early days of business systems there were systems for Finance & Customer Order Distribution & Inventory Planning/ Scheduling /Procurement that did not integrate into a holistic system of supply and demand.
I strongly feel that the US as a World Super Power has a brief window of opportunity to change the world by really focusing on two economic strategic goals:
1. Fossil Fuel Independence
2. Design & Manufacture - Sell & Distribute to the rest of the world.
The technology is availble in bits and pieces (as point-to-point solutions i.e.tactical) but it has not been engineered or assembled together into a cohesive system that can be implemented through out the US: commerially and residentially.
The Supply Chain Infrastructure must be built to manufacture these solutions in a high volume process in much the same way as we use to manufacture cars.
The history of the US Space Race shows that if the US in September of 1961 established NASA and the Apollo moon landing mission was accomplished in July 1969 (8 years - 3 months) that anything that America truly forcuses on can be accomplished.
Ok, I’ll get off my soap box……..
but, I would really like to talk to about this if you are interested my number is 508-876-9963.
Best Regards,
Mark
Mark,
So glad to receive your comment. I will give you a call. I think you highlighted one of the systemic problems with renewables, i.e., it is not an integrated system, force, or approach. Like you, I think our fossil fuel dependence will bankrupt America in a very short period of time. Could you clarify your point #2. I don’t understand it.
I heartily agree with you we have the responsbility and only a short window of opportunity for America to lead the way to rapid sustainability progress. I have that same feeling as you in relation to putting a man on the moon. However, I liken what we have to do more to our transformation to fight World War II. There were massive industrialization and retooling that were driven in very short period of times, as well as total public behavior transformation through new rules and PR (sort of ‘propoganda’). I think Obama is a gift to all of us. He is not going to be perfect, but can provide the leadership and calmness of purpose. However, I haven’t heard him make sustainability our #1 US goal for the next 5 years. I realize he has had the economy disaster, North Korea, Iraq, Afghanistan, the Middle East, etc. to contend with, but I want him to do a John Kennedy or FDR for sustainability. I’d love to see him announce, Kyoto Support (which is weak answer to climate change at best) measurable goals and immediate rules to involve every American and to make a statement to the world, e.g.,
-Announce he will take the Kyoto Protocol, but commit the US to even more stringent requirements.
-The National Speed Limit can be no more than 55 mph anywhwere in the country as of 10/1/09.
-Close all drive-throughs nationwide by 1/1/10
-Require states and localities to institute laws that don’t allow idling of a car over 60 seconds by 10/1/10.
-Immediately TERMINATE all subsidies to oil, gas, coal (any fossil fuel), OK by 1/1/10.
-I know unpopular at least in the short term, but announce $1 tax on gas that goes up $.50 each year and a carbon tax on businesses and residential energy use. I think 50% of these taxes can be used to reduce income taxes for those that make less than $250,000 and the other 50% for massive renewable energy deployments. I’d much rather pay ourselves that give the money away to oil producing countries.
-Although Obama announced an average miles per gallon for cars and light trucks, I don’t think it is stringent enough. I don’t think he will change that, but I think what would be equally effective is a standard that says any new car or truck getting less that 20 miles per gallon cannot be sold in the US after the 2011 model year or if they are sold, a tax is applied for the environmental damage they cause based on the expected life of the vehicle. This tax would go right to renewable energies.
-Institute national tax on garbage (business and residential) and use 50% of tax to decrease income taxes for those making under $250,000 and use the other 50% for superfund or environmental clean-ups.
-Ban all plastic bags (Can you believe in Florida, they passed a law that no municipality can ban for plastic bags, charge for plastic bags, or tax plastic bags?!) as of 1/1/10.
-Introduce a small incentive to replace grass with non-water requiring materials.
-Make water conservation due to drought conditions a requirement nationwide as the new, everyday standard.
Require that companies take on the burden of proving the safety of the materials used in all their products, not the government’s job to prove they are unsafe, starting 1/1/10.
I am sure there are a few other almost immediate things that can be done to have a significant short term impact and involve every American in the crisis we face from global warming, running out of oil and water, as well as not recycling enough. To change a system and set of behaviors, we have to change the rules. You can see that I am for the polluter paying, so that we encourage behavior change. You can also see that I am oriented to less income tax and more impact and use taxes.
Some of these things may seem too hard to do. I think Obama has the political capital to do it. I also think these are minor steps compared to what we will be faced with in a very short time. I have written Obama and am contacting all my representatives to take out loud action on climate change that touches the lives of every American. It is the only way I can see of waking the public up and not letting it stew in denial and apathy.
Last, but not least. I think Obama needs to start, little by little, helping the country to use systems thinking. The public is perfectly capable of understanding basic systems traps and drawing conclusions about action. I am pretty sure Obama is a systems thinker. However, I see no proof that Congress has a clue. The public is perfectly capable of understanding The Natural Step sustainability principles. With a focus on systems thinking and The Natural Step, we would take more effective actions to drive our systems to the results we need.
Thanks again for your comment!
I’ll call you tomorrow,
Debbie Deland