We are on blog #4 for Systems Thinking. It is important for me to tell you that this blog is intended for the layman. There is plenty of top notch scientific information, diagrams, etc. on systems thinking. Two of my favorite books on systems thinking are Thinking in Systems by Donella Meadows and The Fifth Discipline by Peter Senge. There are many sites that go into a lot of detail on systems thinking, systems dynamics as well. But my objective with this blog is to encourage you to take a whole system view when looking at problems and issues, and maybe even spur your interest to learn a little more about systems thinking. I find the basic foundation I have in systems thinking has and continues to change my mental models of the world and problems.
So with that out of the way, we are on to more:
Why do complex systems oscillate, and/or peak or collapse versus our straight line view over time?
There are a multitude of reasons.
- In every system there are one or more delays from when we take action. Due to the delay, we may take more action before seeing the impact of the first action or we may have taken more action than we needed to try and compensate for the delay. Think of the temperature of your shower. You turn it on knowing it will take awhile to get hot. As soon as it is hot, you probably have to turn it down because it is too hot. You turned full left thinking to get it hot the fastest, but then as it is too hot, you have to adjust right to get the right temperature. You might have to move the knob a few times until you have it just right. No straight line there.
- Some complex systems are subject to emotion that may cause major shifts in the system. Stock markets are the best example and need no further explanation for their daily gyrations.
- Some complex systems have poor information flows, i.e., not all players have all information. Each player makes adjustments for the results they want from the system, which cause oscillations.
- Some complex systems are subject to what I would call euphoria. This to me is the characteristic bubble and burst so aptly demonstrated with the dotcom bubble and the housing market bubble. For some reason, humans think that bubbles will never burst. We know better (all bubbles burst), but choose to be on the band wagon, hence why I call it the euphoria syndrome.
- Multiple actions taken on complex systems impact various parts and subsystems causing oscillation. Most actions can’t be perfect in delivering the result we desire and need adjustment, refinement, change.
Systems have feedback loops and information flows. A system can have one or more reinforcing feedback loops or balancing feedback loops (remember they can have one or more stocks, delays and information flows too). A reinforcing feedback loop is found wherever a system element has the ability to reproduce itself or to grow as a constant fraction of itself. The most obvious examples of systems with reinforcing loops are populations and economies. A reinforcing feedback loop enhances whatever direction of change is imposed on it. Reinforcing feedback loops can cause healthy growth or runaway destruction. So, “reinforcing feedback loops are self-enhancing, leading to exponential growth or to runaway collapse over time. They are found whenever a stock has the capacity to reinforce or reproduce itself.” It needs balancing feedback loops to keep it in check. Importantly, this fairly common systems phenomenon has an easy shortcut for determining the exponential impact, i.e., the time it takes for an exponentially growing stock to double in size, the ‘doubling time’ equals approximately 70 divided by the growth rate (as a percentage). “Easy example: If you put $100 in the bank at 75 interest per year, you will double your money in 10 years (70/7=10).” Only getting five percent, it will take 14 years for your money to double. I am sure you have heard of this phenomenon of systems when you hear about the world’s population growth.
The next blog will be on balancing feedback loops. In relation to population, the balancing feedback loop is mortality, death. Why would a population stock have a built in growth quantity? Why would you consider world population a runaway complex system?
See you in the next blog for balancing loops and the escalation system archetype.
By Debbie Deland, Director of The 10% Initiative. She works with Green Cities Florida, the Chamber of Commerce, and NetImpact.
Tags: Energy Systems, Systems Thinking
